Irrational Due Diligence
Paul B. Farrell, a reporter with Market Watch, has a nice piece on due diligence for investors in the stock market. He suggests that the SEC's goal of full due diligence is doomed. Recall this is the same theory which supports the FTC's Franchise Rule and proposed new Business Opportunity Rule. Why does he believe this?
"I'm convinced full disclosure will fail. Lack of information isn't the investor's problem. Neither is a lack of tools. Discount brokers arm online traders with the best possible data and tools, and still research studies prove active investors are after-tax losers.Worse yet, professional fund managers don't do much better. They play the game full-time, they're armed with powerful tools and tons of data, and yet, year-after-year, 75% of them still can't beat the indexes. More data? Fancier tools? Full disclosure? This SEC fantasy is doomed to failure!
Here's why: The problem is not rational, it's psychological. Emotions always trump logic, analysis and reason. The problem's in the investor's brain. The solution is not more technology, not a new computer language, not a bigger database or hard-drive, not the speed of your processor ... that's just a futuristic Star Trek illusion." (my emphasis)
Should we just give up on trying to educate the prospective franchisee or business opportunity distributor? Yes and no.
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Yes, if we are only trying to educate the prospective franchisee or business opportunity distributor. In cases of fraud or scams, as Cialdini showed convincingly: more information can make a person make a bad decision quicker. This is a very important observation about scams and fraud -those people most in need of protection will take active steps to discount negative information about the scheme.
No, if we are trying to educate the third party innocent enablers of fraud, newspapers, trade shows hosts, banks, and call centres.
Technorati Tags: powerful tools, full disclosure, due diligence, professional fund managers, doomed, investors, sec, ftc, game full, franchise rule, market watch, logic analysis, online traders, discount brokers, trump, business opportunity, losers, new business, stock market
