Do You Make this Mistake in Reasoning?
Sweepstakes Scam Cheated Unsuspecting Consumers, FTC Says.
Which would you prefer to purchase:
A) a $20 lottery ticket, in which the chances of winning the big prize are 14 million to one, or
B) a $20 lottery ticket that was already won the big prize?
Think about this choice carefully: $20 for a chance at winning $A, or $20 for a sure thing of winning $A?
The answer is very simple: you ought to prefer A. Anyone selling you a winning lottery ticket for $20 is luring you with something for nothing. Take the real odds, because the sure thing is a sure loss.
According to the FTC's complaint against John Ricon and numerous other companies, Mr. Ricon has been running a version of this particular scam since 2004.
Of course Mr. Ricon doesn't offer to sell you the winnning tickert for $20.00 as that would be too obvious a ploy.
Instead, our good friend, contacts you and offers you a deal in which you "redeem" the winning ticket for $20.00 Attached to the mailout is an official looking form called the W-915 form, full of Official looking portent, although the State of Nebraska had a public warning out about this W-915 Form in February of this year. And of course fraudaid.com had a good warning also.
Reasoning that A) is preferable to B), while it appears odd and in fact contradicts one of the axioms of rational decision theory, makes a great deal of sense. Basically, you are questioning the ability of the person offering you the choice to really make good on what they are offering.
It would be wrong to think that B) is too good to be true, since some $20 ticket won a lottery somewhere. But you are not going to buy it after the fact for $20.
The other thing that makes it hard to illegal lottery is the way the choice is framed: not purchase a winning ticket, but rather redeem a winning ticket. These are exactly the same mathematical choices if you cannot pay the redemption fee out of your winnings. It does take mental work to see the two situations as the same choices, however. The scammers count upon this mental work being too hard and you erronously believing that the phantom dream is just about to be fulfilled.
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