Seth's Blog: The 80:1 Freakonomics Paradox
I enjoy reading Seth Godin, like many I suppose. Here is his latest riff; can you spot the obvious flaw? Seth's Blog: The 80:1 Freakonomics Paradox
The Journal reports that there are a slew of Freakonomics-like books on the market. Some of them are actually pretty good, few are selling at all. My guess is that the original has outsold its competitors by about 80 to 1.That's not surprising if you talk to people. A good friend of mine who never ever reads books about business or economics just picked up a copy last week. She said, "I think it's time I read this, right?" When a product becomes a hit, an entirely new class of people become interested in it, largely because it's a hit.
Which leads to the paradox. The easiest products in the world to develop, option, license and get to market are copycat products. They are beyond reproach. They feel safe. In actuality, though, most markets aren't big enough for two blockbusters. The first one dominates the little market, which allows it to break through and capture the attention of the big market. The bestseller creates the problem (I haven't read that/tasted that/been there) and then solves that problem. The second (and third and fourth and fifth) are trying to sell a solution to people who no longer have the problem.
This is cute: but Coke and Pepsi comes to mind as the obvious counter-example.
Long before Freakonomics, there was a swath of of strategic decision theory books in the mid 90's - arguably far more interesting than Freakonomics. They burst on to the scene and left within a couple of years.
None of them had the very long incubation period that Freakonomics had: the article linking the decrease in the crime and abortion rates.
